Will corn surge next year?Calm under the surface of the dark turbulent, doomed to not “smooth”!
Dear friends, today is February 6th. I wish all my friends a happy and healthy year in 2022.Just after the Spring Festival, the regional logistics also started, shandong cars have a lot of deep processing enterprise in northeast China, north China, it also led to some areas of the arrival of the goods quantity increased obviously, but after a period of consumption during the Spring Festival, enterprises need to increase inventories, prices decline is not obvious, then see what companies began immediately after the formal work “way”.The corn market is not destined to be “smooth” this year.Traders can be stable, no big deal to make money can not receive grain, how smooth deep processing enterprises?Their “belly” still had not eaten satiety, use grain of a year even, how smooth?Corn price has been slow to move from the opening price to now, around the left and right, so the rise of 100~200 yuan/ton after the New Year belongs to the normal market price fluctuation, and it is early rise and late rise, more rise and less things.At the same time, this year is the second year of corn marketization. Last year, many people were “tortured”, so this year is a little too “cautious”, especially in the northeast production area of deep processing and big grain harvesters, coFCO, Xiangyu, they will buy at a higher price, the main reason is that they also want to make money, but also optimistic about the future market.The northeast corn went so fast that everyone wondered, “Where did the grain go?”The time of a short month, the speed that walks grain is so fast, also exceeded everybody’s imagination.Wherever the grain went, it was on track for its annual average purchase.At the same time, the state of farmers selling grain is also very good, traders do market is also very good, basically belongs to the flow of price, why will there be a new market and market?With the market going through a process of rising and falling in 2021, our later balance is not very large, that is to say, the carryover stock in 2021 is relatively low compared with the same period in previous years, and the amount of replacement is also very large. However, the breeding industry is also recovering rapidly, especially the rapid development of the pig market.So demand for feed remains at historically high levels.That, combined with the fact that companies had relatively low inventories for the same period, led to a dramatic shift in the fourth quarter of 2021.If there is no food, there will be a problem for the whole industry in 2022. There is certainly food, but the specific amount is still 30% or 50%. Everyone is just making a blind guess about the market, and no one knows.One of the biggest changes in the corn market this year is that there has been an obvious change in the participants in the market. The participants in the behaviors of market traders this year can be described as “professional”, so people or subjects are very rational in doing business, and it is the people in the industry who are doing the market.However, we also found that a large number of imported corn appeared in some areas of Northeast Jilin province, and the replacement of rice and wheat would also be carried out one after another. If corn occupied enough market share in the early stage, it would be difficult for the replacement to grab the market back in the later stage.Because this is not last year’s market – the time to sell grain, traders are reluctant to sell.Market this year is totally different, which a year and this year’s corn market healthy, so there is no malicious competition between the same industry, policy guidance is given priority to with steady, the early stage of the food you don’t do the stock on the market at all, all of these factors to make the corn market is bullish on the basis of compaction, so before the May 1 farmers of agricultural, low possibility of corn tumbled,If it does not fall, there will be two outcomes: one is steady, the other is up.However, the two results are dominated by inflation. We need to see the pattern of surplus grain in the northeast production area. When can a large amount of grain stand to sell?How many other acquisition subjects are there?Now it’s a little out of proportion.So before May Day, even if corn prices rise, the policy guidance will be stable, will not make “very ugly”.This year’s corn price involves a lot, fertilizer, planting costs, external environment and so on, the market will appear a relatively rational adjustment, but there will not be a large range of adjustment.Now and then there were a few into food is not important, the most important thing is that a change in market sentiment, especially after the Spring Festival traders will actively to make acquisitions, no matter how or a small amount of inventory, and the mindset of northeast deep processing enterprises do inventory will take years of the so-called “low season” to smooth, forming a strong price support.